Professor Brian Bell predicts significant decrease in migration numbers within the next two to three years, with 300,000 as the long-term average.

Professor Brian Bell, the chairman of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), forecasts that net migration to the UK will decrease significantly over the next few years, potentially reaching around 300,000 annually. Speaking to the PA news agency, Bell expressed his confidence that migration figures will experience a “rapid decline,” stabilising at this level for the next decade or two, provided no significant policy changes are made.

In the year leading up to June 2023, net migration reached a record high of 906,000, with the difference between arrivals and departures being 166,000 higher than originally estimated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). However, the numbers dropped by 20% in the following year, with the latest figures for June 2024 showing 728,000 migrants.

Bell emphasised that the overall trend is “very clearly downwards” and expects this to continue, possibly accelerating in the next 12 to 24 months. He attributed this decline to a steady decrease in Home Office visa issuance numbers, predicting that migration numbers will settle at about 300,000, which he views as a sustainable long-term average.

Geopolitical factors such as international humanitarian crises or visa restrictions in other countries could influence UK migration numbers, Bell explained. He noted that while short-term fluctuations may occur, policy should focus on long-term averages when addressing migration.

The Labour Party’s Sir Keir Starmer has also pledged to reduce immigration numbers, though he refrained from setting specific targets. Migration Minister Seema Malhotra stated that net migration had quadrupled over the past five years and reiterated the government’s commitment to reducing numbers, ensuring that immigration is managed in conjunction with the UK’s skills and labour market policies.