Economists debate the future of the US economy after more than a year of warnings.

For over a year, experts have sounded alarms about a looming recession in the United States. However, as the economic landscape continues to evolve, opinions remain divided on what form—if any—a recession might take.

Some economists suggest a “richcession,” where the wealthiest Americans feel the pinch more acutely due to downturns in tech and finance sectors. Others argue for a “rolling recession,” characterised by alternating declines in different industries rather than a simultaneous downturn across the economy.

Despite these warnings, recent indicators, such as strong employment numbers and resilient consumer spending, have cast doubt on the inevitability of a recession. Analysts now grapple with whether the US can avoid a downturn altogether or if the economic risks will eventually materialise.

The debate underscores the unpredictable nature of the economy and the challenges of forecasting in a period of unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy changes.